JERUSALEM: The war between Israel and Iran has exposed the limitations of China as a power on a global scale. In fact, China will have a long way to go to fulfil its ambition of dislodging the U.S. as the dominant power in the world.
Beijing is an old friend of Tehran, with China buying nearly 15 percent of its total oil imports from Iran. Nearly 90 percent of the total oil shipped by Iran goes to China. In 2024, China’s oil purchases from Iran amounted to nearly 1.5 million barrels per day. A report by the U.S. Energy Information Administration in 2024 estimated that the Chinese economy could struggle to preserve its industrial production without the roughly 1.2 million barrels of oil and petroleum products on an average provided by Iran.
When Iran faced a massive attack from Israel, coupled with a U.S. air strike on its nuclear installations, “the Chinese government, a long-time friend of Iran, jumped into action; at least when it came to words,” as the AP has commented. “It condemned the attack. China’s leader Xi Jinping got on the phone with the Russian leader and urged a ceasefire. The Chinese Foreign Minister spoke with his counterpart in Iran. But that’s where China stopped. The usual rhetoric was delivered. Yet China offered no material support.”
By contrast, the U.S. stood by its ally Israel in orchestrating the attack on Iran, helping Tel Aviv with intelligence and material support. Missiles fired from American ships helped Tel Aviv neutralize Iranian missiles fired at Israel. In a decisive air strike carried out on the Fordo nuclear installation deep underground in Iran, the U.S. helped Israel achieve the aim of its war of neutralizing the bomb-making capability of Iran. Israel did not have the wherewithal necessary to execute such a strike. Above all, both Israel and Iran accepted a ceasefire declared by the U.S., showing that Washington could also de-escalate a crisis.
“China can now continue to purchase oil from Iran,” U.S. President Donald Trump wrote sarcastically in a social media post after the announcement of the ceasefire between Israel and Iran.
It is no wonder that he did so. “China has little ability to affect the situation directly, has no ability to militarily influence that conflict, ” the Washington Post has quoted China – Iran expert William Figueroa at the University of Groningen in the Netherlands. The ability of China to project military power in the Middle East is limited as it has just one overseas base close by, in the African continent of Djibouti established in 2017; in fact the only overseas military base of China. The concern that the establishment of this would be followed by a wave of military expansion by China has proved to be wrong.
In a recent study, RAND (Global Policy Think Tank Research Institute) has concluded that China’s growing interest in opening more military bases abroad does not pose a big threat to the U.S. forces till 2030, at least. China is not well positioned to build foreign bases or run them in a way that will improve their ability to contest the American naval power. According to the study, China has been trying to sign agreements for military bases in Cambodia, Equatorial Guinea, Namibia, the Solomon Islands, the UAE and Vanuatu but still has a long way to go before it can use such bases to challenge the dominance of the U.S. One reason is that China does not have the same kind of sophisticated command and control structures overseas that the United States has. The U.S. has far stronger relations with its partners abroad. The external relations of China are more limited, based largely on loans and less on deep military-to-military contacts.
The hands-off policy of China in the Iran – Israel war has considerably dented the prestige it gained in 2023 by brokering a peace deal between Saudi Arabia and Iran, the traditional rivals in the Middle- East. Analysts say it is a dilemma that Beijing faces that while China wants itself to be viewed as a great power capable of mediating in major global conflicts, its close relationship with specific parties diminishes its ability to play such a role. China’s Belt and Road Initiative extends to Iran but it also has investments in the burgeoning technology sector in Israel. China considers Israel a key node in the infrastructure network of BRI connecting Asia and Europe.
Though Iran is a ‘Comprehensive Strategic Partner’ of China, Beijing can ill afford to antagonize Israel either. In 2021 China signed with Iran a 25-year strategic cooperation agreement, but at the hour of crisis Beijing offered little; though the agreement included provisions for military and cyber-security cooperation too.
The protection of its economic interests is the dominant parameter in determining the foreign policy of China, not the promotion of strategic interests. Beijing will not hesitate to ditch a friend if it helps to protect its immediate economic interests. In the bargain, China has been exposed as an unreliable ally. When the war was on, Tehran was contemplating closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which the bulk of the oil supply of the world passed, to put pressure on oil-importing countries to prevail upon Israel to stop attacking Iran. Knowing the importance of the oil flow from the Middle – East to keep the wheels of industries in China running, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio cleverly requested China to prevail upon Iran not to close the Strait of Hormuz. The aim of Beijing in the war was not to escalate the crisis and endanger its commercial interests, even if that meant vital losses for Iran.
According to analysts, the effects of China’s past diplomatic breakthroughs in the Middle-East like successful mediation between Iran and Saudi Arabia have been limited. Here, Beijing’s main interest is commercial; like procuring oil and flooding the Iranian market with its cheap commercial products in return. The U.S., on the other hand, is far more engaged politically and militarily in the Middle East, with air bases and long-standing alliances.
In the process, China has been exposed as a paper tiger; falling short in delivering the punch when necessary.
