The deployment of China’s second aircraft carrier ‘Shandong’ off the Philippine coast comes at a time of increased tensions with the Philippines. Incidents of the use of water cannons by the Chinese and deliberate ramming of Philippines coast guard vessels indicate an intensification of efforts by China to assert its claims over a shoal in the disputed South China Sea.
On its part Manila has clearly stated that it does not intend to increase tensions in the region by using water cannons or any offensive weapons in the South China Sea. The last thing it wanted was to raise tensions in the strategic waterway noted President Marcos Jr. Meanwhile, the Philippines has been ramping up ties with its neighbours and other countries to counter what it described as China’s growing aggression in the South China Sea. The foreign and defence ministers of Japan and the Philippines will meet in Manila on 8 July and discuss among other things, a breakthrough defence pact that would allow their military forces to visit each other’s soil.
Marcos told reporters (5 May) that: “We will not follow the Chinese coast guard and Chinese vessels down that road.” He said the mission of the Philippine Navy and Coast Guard was to lower tensions, and there no plans to install water cannons on vessels. Manila had protested Beijing’s use of water cannons against Filipino vessels at the submerged Thomas Shoal reef, describing it as harassment and “dangerous manoeuvres”, after a rise in tensions in recent months. Subsequently, China sent its second aircraft carrier, Shandong, with a displacement of about 70,000 tonnes, to patrol the waters off the Philippines coast. The Global Times described this as an act of deterrence against “continuous Philippine provocations” on Chinese islands and reefs in the South China Sea. The state-run media also informs that the aircraft carrier is on a scheduled exercise to prepare it for a potential far sea voyage into the West Pacific.
Shandong’s deployment comes after the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) deployed major surface combat ships, including large and medium destroyers as well as the main amphibious landing ship in the South China Sea in view of the escalation of the maritime territorial conflict with Manila. The China-Philippines confrontation over their claims in the disputed South China Sea took a violent turn (17 June 2024) when naval ships of both countries collided in the first such incident after China issued new rules to act against foreign vessels and detain foreigners “suspected of violating regulations” in Chinese waters. A Philippines naval ship and a Chinese vessel collided near the Second Thomas Shoal of the South China Sea, claimed by Manila.
In the first week of July, China sent the Shangdong carrier to patrol the waters off the Philippines as a sign of force and deterrent to both Manila and Washington as well as underline “China’s determination to protect territorial sea sovereignty” over the Second Thomas Shoal. Such actions are deliberate and provocative in nature and may indicate that China intends to do this regularly, if they view Manila’s actions as a threat to their national security. Once the presence of PLAN forces multiply, then it could mean that China is preparing for war. This could well be the long-term Chinese view, even though at the moment its action signals a specific aggressive intent. Whether this could translate into military action with destabilising effects across the Pacific will also depend on how it correlates its action here to a possible future takeover of Taiwan.
June 2024 was a defining moment in the China-Philippines confrontation over assertion of claims in the disputed South China Sea. A violent incident occurred when naval ships of both nations collided. This is the first such incident after China issued new rules to act against foreign vessels and detain foreigners “suspected of violating regulations” in Chinese waters. As per the new law, the Chinese coast guard is authorised to seize foreign ships that illegally enter China’s territorial waters and to detain foreign crews for up to 60 days. The law also empowers the coast guard to fire upon foreign ships. Face-offs between the navies and the coast guards of the two countries have become commonplace in the last few months even as the Philippines backed by the US, strongly asserted its claims over the Second Thomas Shoal. The Philippines has a permanent station in the Second Thomas Shoal (Renal Jiao) as they ran aground a naval ship in 1999 there and converted it into a permanent installation.
China alleges that the Philippines deliberately ran a naval ship aground in 1999 at the Second Thomas Shoal, which Beijing calls Ren’ai Jiao, and converted the damaged ship into a permanent installation manned by naval personnel. The US has deployed mid-range Typhon missile systems in the Philippines to support Manila’s maritime claims. A little digression is necessary to understand China’s naval power projection in the South China Sea. It currently has two aircraft carriers, Liaoning, and Shandong, the latter being an indigenously built aircraft carrier commissioned in 2019. China’s third aircraft carrier Fujian, with a displacement of 80,000 tons, is currently undergoing trials. It is the “first fully domestically developed and constructed” aircraft carrier with an electromagnetic aircraft launch system (EMALS). China’s other two aircraft carriers are equipped with ski-jump take-off ramps while the Fujian features a flat-top flight deck.
These recent developments create the impression that China wants to up the ante against the Philippines in the South China Sea. After having initially used fishing boats and militia vessels to stake its claims, China is now using water cannons to extend its authority. The display of military might in the form of aircraft carriers signals a possible shift in China’s strategy in the South China Sea. If the past is any indication, Chinese aggression will only grow. While the Philippines is clear that it does not want escalation, the consequences of any action by Beijing which could disturb regional peace is something that could create a new dimension in the geo-politics of the South China Sea.
