Amidst setbacks, China's commercial space industry is gradually positioning itself as a formidable player on the global stage. A Chinese rocket start up suffered another launch failure, resulting in the loss of three satellites as part of a commercial constellation being assembled for global weather forecasting and earthquake prediction. Hyperbola-1 – a 24-metre (79ft) high solid-fuel rocket produced by iSpace – lifted off recently from the Jiuquan Satellite Launch Centre in north western China’s Gobi Desert in the morning. Prior to that, China suffered another setback with the failed launch of the Zhuque-2 Y2 rocket by Land space. These failures are not isolated incidents, yet they have not dampened the spirit of commercial space companies. Leveraging a mix of government support, private capital, and ambitious projects, the industry has been aggressively making efforts to surpass Western competitors and establish its dominance in space technology. Beijing now wants its commercial sector to catch up to rivals such as Elon Musk's Space X.
According to SCMP.com, Yunyao Aerospace Technology had planned to launch nearly 40 satellites this year to complete its 90-satellite Yunyao-1 constellation by next year. “Our constellation will break a foreign monopoly and provide high-resolution, high-precision, and all-scale weather monitoring and earthquake early warning services to Belt and Road Initiative countries,” a Yunyao Aerospace representative told Tianjin Daily in January. However, this aggressive pursuit has raised critical concerns regarding the competitive dynamics, sustainability, and geopolitical implications of its space ventures.
According to arstechnica.com, the four-stage Hyperbola-1 solid rocket had lifted off from the Jiuquan spaceport in the Gobi Desert recently. Beijing-based iSpace later issued a release stating that the rocket’s fourth stage suffered an anomaly. The statement did not reveal the name or nature of the payloads lost on the flight. The website stated that early troubles are perhaps to be expected. Beijing Interstellar Glory Space Technology Ltd., or iSpace, made history way back in 2019 as the first privately funded Chinese company to reach orbit, with the solid-fuelled Hyperbola-1. However, the rocket suffered three consecutive failures following that feat. The company recovered with two successful flights in 2023 before the latest failure. The loss has raised concerns over the reliability of China’s commercial launch industry.
In May 2022, an orbital launch attempt by Chinese start up iSpace ended in failure, following two failures the previous year. The fourth Hyperbola-1, a four-stage solid rocket, lifted off from the Jiuquan Satellite Launch Center but failed to reach orbit. The failure, confirmed by Chinese state media Xinhua, prompted an investigation into the specific causes, reflecting the difficulties and uncertainties inherent in space launch endeavours.
Setbacks have failed to dampen the spirit of the Chinese commercial space industry as it appears to be increasing access to space and allowing China to achieve a launch rate needed to build a pair of low Earth orbit mega constellations, each over 10,000-satellites strong. It is also a sign of China’s commitment to establishing a thriving commercial space sector. According to news reports, China has a plan to make a national record of 100 orbital launches this year. China’s main space contractor, China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation (CASC), plans around 70 launches to send more than 290 spacecraft into orbit. The remaining launches will be performed by China’s growing commercial launch sector.
Commercial Space Sector: The Backbone of Expansion
Until 2015, China's commercial launch companies were not so active. After 2015, these companies started showing significant progress. Initially focused on smaller, simpler solid rockets, the sector is now advancing towards larger, reusable launchers. Companies like Landspace, Space Pioneer, Galactic Energy, and iSpace are developing reusable rockets with considerable payload capacities. Land space’s Zhuque-3 and iSpace’s Hyperbola-3, for instance, are expected to perform their first flights by 2025, marking significant milestones in the country’s reusable rocket capabilities.
"China's commercial space sector is impressively large and deep," said Blaine Curcio, founder of Orbital Gateway Consulting. While Space X is "vastly ahead" of its Chinese equivalent, "if we compare the fifth, or the 10th most-developed launch companies in the US and China, China is probably ahead," he said. According to a report in france24.com, there are "deep links" between China's state and commercial sectors, said Curcio, with many companies founded by former employees from state-run companies or academics from government institutes.
Control of the cosmos is already another arena for US-China rivalry, with both accusing the other of hiding its space programme's military objectives, reported France24.com. The next decade of competition with China is the "most critical 10 years" in history, a former US Space Command chief said recently. "We cannot afford to lose," he said. NASA administrator Bill Nelson had criticized China's space agency for the lack of transparency as it has endangered other countries. Uncontrolled re-entries of rockets launched by China in recent years have raised safety concerns and prompted calls for additional established norms of behaviour for space-faring nations. "China is simply not cooperative, nor are they transparent," Nelson had told Axios space reporter Miriam Kramer in March 2023.
Meanwhile, China's aggressive expansion in the commercial space sector has raised several critical concerns. The competition for LEO is intensifying, with risks of overcrowding and frequency conflicts. China's race to secure frequencies and orbits before they are saturated by other actors necessitates a fast-paced launch schedule, potentially compromising safety and sustainability. The geopolitical implications of China's space ambitions cannot be overlooked. The Chinese military has expressed concerns about the potential military applications of Western mega constellations like Star link. Simultaneously, China's own mega constellations could be perceived as tools for geopolitical influence, positioning the country as a provider of global infrastructure.
As China accelerates its space endeavours, the global space sector must grapple with the implications of this emerging powerhouse and the challenges it presents to existing players and international norms.
